Since medical cannabis was made legal in the UK back in 2018, a whole year of use and application has allowed industry players to evaluate uptake trends and speculate on the projected growth of the industry in the months and years to come. And even though legislation in the UK has lead to a slow start and relatively meager numbers, industry players are forecasting that the cannabis industry in the UK will surpass over 2 billion pounds of revenue by the year 2024.
What global cannabis trends forecast
The global cannabis industry has been on the up and up. The tail end of the last decade saw major advances in regards to decriminalization and legalization across the world. Just a year before medical marijuana became legal in the UK, Uruguay started off the domino effect and lots of other countries and states followed suit. Today over 30 states in the US have made medical marijuana legal. These advances came about due to a mix of factors such as scientific research indicating vital medical benefits of using cannabis, high costs of modern medicine and the need for alternatives such as cannabis which has been used in the past by traditional civilizations, reduced stigma in society regarding the use of cannabis, and the prospective government revenue that states can collect from legal marijuana.
Today, it is not farfetched to anticipate that by the end of this decade (2029), cannabis will be legal in almost all developed countries and states. In 2019, the US cannabis market was valued at around 14 billion dollars. In just five years, that value is expected to soar all the way to $40 billion dollars as 20 more states legalize marijuana and society accepts the alternative drug even more openly. And that projection provides a great yardstick for what the UK cannabis market could be within the same timeframe. Although legalization in Europe and the UK has been slower, projections are positive that the European cannabis market could grow to even surpass the numbers estimated for the US markets, in the long run of course.
Tight regulations still remain in the UK
At present, the UK has been rather reluctant to follow in the footsteps of other developing countries and legalize recreational cannabis. Even more than that, medical cannabis is tightly regulated both in terms of use, as well as supply. For now, medical marijuana is only permitted for a very shallow pool of conditions which include severe multiple sclerosis and severe epilepsy. And these permits must go through GPs for greenlighting. In terms of supply, medical cannabis in the UK is mostly imported, despite the fact that the UK does export a lot of cannabis to other nations. But the fact that these facts paint a gloomy picture of the present is the reason why the future of the UK’s cannabis industry looks very bright. The only way to go is up and the industry has yet to even exhaust the tip of the iceberg.
Studying the effects of medical cannabis in the UK
Already there is a plan to introduce a comprehensive medical study in cannabis in the UK. The study will be the largest of its kind in the region and will include 20,000 participants and will last about two years. This study will seek to explore the effects and impact of medical cannabis in the era of modern medicine. Prohibition Partners, a cannabis research consultancy group is hopeful that this study will yield positive results for cannabis; a move that will allow the UK government to allow prescription of medical marijuana for a broader range of conditions. This move would see the number of people using medical cannabis in the UK expand significantly between now and 2015. The results would also positively impact the possibility of legalizing recreational cannabis in the UK.
The UK stands to gain a lot from cannabis
And that is how the prediction that the UK cannabis market could stand at 2 billion pounds and above by 2015 comes about. Already, the government has approved the use of cannabis-based drug Epidyolex for epilepsy. There is also talk by some legislators in the UK parliament about the need to legalize and broaden applications of medical marijuana in the UK. And a key pressure point that could change everything is the Brexit process. Should the UK leave the EU without any considerable gains in regards to trade agreements, the government will be short of options to stimulate its economy financially. And in that position, medical cannabis just might turn out to be the golden goose of the hour. Already, the illegal cannabis business in the UK is estimated to be worth about 5 billion pounds with almost 5 million adult consumers. A good portion of that revenue could be taxed by the government should medical marijuana laws be loosened in the coming months. And when you factor in CBD and CBG products, the revenue possibilities for the UK just get better.